Washington, DC – JPMorgan Chase has issued a significant update to its precious metals market outlook. The bank indicated that demand for gold from key sectors will not be as strong as previously anticipated. This revision has led the bank to lower its price expectations for the precious metal. It now forecasts a price of $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and $4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter of this year. This analysis comes as the bank has backtracked on its more optimistic forecasts issued last June, which suggested prices could reach record highs of up to $6,000 per ounce by the end of the year.
Federal Reserve risks and interest rate pressures
The bank’s report indicated that current expectations are “bearish.” The report stated that the biggest threat lies in the US Federal Reserve’s policy. If economic data is strong, the Fed might raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated. This scenario puts pressure on gold, as it is a non-yielding asset. This, in turn, pushes investors towards assets that offer attractive returns in a high-interest-rate environment.
Future outlook and other minerals
Despite these short-term pressures, JPMorgan maintained a positive long-term outlook. The bank expects gold to continue its gains next year, supported by central bank activity and physical demand. As for other metals:
Silver: Its average price is expected to range between $60 and $65 per ounce.
Platinum: Expected to hit $1,800 by year-end, with a rise to $1,950 by the end of next year.
Palladium: Forecasts indicate $1350 by the end of this year, and $1300 during next year.
Central bank purchases: a safety valve
In contrast, gold retains its appeal as a strategic reserve asset. Data from the World Gold Council up to June 30, 2026, indicates that central banks increased their net gold reserves by approximately 41 tons in May alone.
Poland led the way with purchases of 18 tons, followed by China with 10 tons (marking its twentieth consecutive month of buying). Uzbekistan came in third with 9 tons, and Kazakhstan with 7 tons. Singapore, the Czech Republic, and Jordan made sporadic purchases. Meanwhile, Russia and Turkey continued their selling activity.
Gold rose 1.3% on Friday to $4,174 an ounce, buoyed by US jobs data that reduced the likelihood of an interest rate hike. This gave the precious metal its first weekly gain after five weeks of decline, confirming its resilience to major economic fluctuations.