Our Ben Linfoot looks ahead to the new jumps season as he digests some previews and ponders Gaelic Warrior’s Gold Cup claims.
Cheltenham is back.
The hole is filled in, a kilometre of drainage has been replaced, the bars have been refurbished (and not just with a ‘lick of paint’), significant enough rain seems to be sweeping through the Cotswolds and we’ve the two-day Showcase Meeting on ITV Racing on Friday and Saturday.
There’s enough to like right there for a jumps racing fan thirsty for some decent action but, if big names are your thing, the wait will have to go on a little while yet.
In this period of transition, though, there is a plethora of content on the internet to get you into the right frame of mind for the season ahead.
On these pages we have Stable Tours from Dan Skelton, Ben Pauling, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson, with plenty more to come, while there’s Timeform’s 50 ‘Horses To Follow’ to peruse, online-only now, but with a whole host of additional interactive features to bring the collection to life.
The Racing Post’s Big Jump Off was an extensive package and I enjoyed the ‘Jump Season Preview’ on Racing TV’s YouTube channel, where Lydia Hislop brings up the potential need for racing’s equivalent of football’s Financial Fair Play rules as early as the third minute.
She didn’t, and we won’t, go into who could be racing’s equivalent of Manchester City, not when we’re barely into the depths of October and all hope springs eternal, but, focusing on the equine stars, there was plenty of chat about jump racing’s new poster boy, Gaelic Warrior, and he will be a hot topic of conversation amongst the National Hunt fraternity throughout the campaign.
It’s not unusual to see the reigning Cheltenham Gold Cup champ chalked up as the 2/1 favourite five months in advance, and there was no doubting his brilliance last March, but I have been a little surprised at the almost universal feeling that the 2027 renewal is his to lose already.
Perhaps importantly, we have already seen evidence that his Gold Cup triumph has not taken the edge off him, given he came out six weeks later and put in an imperious effort when winning by 26 lengths at Punchestown, and that is an indicator that he can go on and produce more 180+ performances in textbook fashion this season.
If he does he’s going to be tough to beat, but it is not a division where the combination of class and longevity is commonplace, for all that Kauto Star and more recently Galopin Des Champs are fresh enough in the memory banks.
Gaelic Warrior’s great strength is that he’s a pacey horse who stays, much like Kauto Star. It’s a freakish combination at a high level and horses with that profile rarely come along – certainly not with the frequency with which Paul Nicholls’ great champion lit up the winter game.
Willie Mullins’ horse could be another one, I suppose, but there is just a nagging feeling that one or two mid-winter brawls at Kempton and Leopardstown might see his Cheltenham Gold Cup odds lengthen, and while he’s arguably in his prime eight turning nine, we have now had a decade of the Festival feature going to seven and eight-year-olds.
Given he dominates the market there could be some upside in investing in youth, with several six, seven and eight-year-olds (come March) to pick from at much bigger odds.
Amongst that cohort there is Jango Baie (12/1) and Lulamba (20/1) for Nicky Henderson, Romeo Coolio (50/1) and Western Fold (100/1) for Gordon Elliott and The Big Westerner (66/1) for Henry de Bromhead. But the main threat could be in Gaelic Warrior’s own yard, and like he was handed the baton from Galopin Des Champs, he has several younger stablemates waiting in the wings.
Three of them ran in last season’s Brown Advisory, a race that has really benefitted for the removal of the 2m4f Grade 1 novice chase at the Festival, with the 13-runner field the largest since O’Faolain’s Boy won the contest for Rebecca Curtis in 2014.
It looked a deep renewal on paper, as well, and there has been some significant form boosts subsequently, notably Koktail Divin’s Grade 1 Manifesto win at Aintree and Western Fold’s Grade 1 win at Punchestown.
Mullins’ Kitzbuhel (25/1 for the Gold Cup) won the Brown Advisory under a great ride from Harry Cobden, with stablemate Final Demand (16/1) finishing second (before he was recently disqualified due to a banned substance), and another Closutton representative, Kaid d’Authie (33/1), tipped up at the 13th when going well.
The latter is particularly interesting rising seven this year, potentially with Cobden on board in his new role for JP McManus, his Leopardstown form franked by Western Fold and Final Demand and his profile not too dissimilar to Gaelic Warrior’s, given he also had to bounce back from departing with his rider as a novice.
There are probably too many words there on a race that takes place in five months’ time, but that’s what the jumps season does to you. It’s not just about the now, it’s about the next (March), and in celebration of that I’ll finish with a tip, of sorts (it’s not mine, really, it’s Patrick Mullins’).
After reading all the jumps season previews and watching the videos I’ve got ideas coming out of my ears, but the one that I can’t get away from with an antepost wager in mind is after reading what Mullins said about Kiely’s Place in the trainers’ selections section of the Timeform ‘Horses To Follow’.
“I thought Kiely’s Place could make up into a very nice chaser this season,” he said. “He was too keen when he ran poorly in Fairyhouse but he had a very good run in Punchestown after that and I think, when we get him over fences, and on soft ground, over two-and-a-half to three miles, I think he will be a very good novice chaser this year.”
Beaten just over two lengths by King Rasko Grey at Punchestown, he looks a Mullins novice chaser that has gone under the radar and given there is no 2m4f Grade 1 novice chase at Cheltenham anymore, it looks the Brown Advisory or bust for Tony Bloom’s 100/1 shot. 👀
We’ll see what Willie Mullins says about him, and plenty of others, in his extensive and unmissable Stable Tour, out on these pages this weekend, more information to consume as the Showcase Meeting does its thing at Prestbury Park.
Yes, the jumps season proper is on the horizon.
Cheltenham is back.
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