(Kitco Commentary) – The latest Commitments of Traders report — the 44th of 2026 — brought a notable cluster of bullish COT signals across the metals complex, with platinum and gold both showing large weekly positioning changes and the euro logging an extreme that reaches back roughly a decade. Taken together, this week’s data offers a meaningful addition to the picture for traders watching precious metals.
Platinum and Gold: Large Weekly Shifts in Commercial Positioning
Platinum led the metals this week with a 23% change in commercials’ net position — futures and options combined, as reported in the classic COT format. That qualifies as a bullish COT change signal, and looking at the chart, I would place it comfortably in the top three changes visible over the period. The directional read is that it suggests some potential strengthening in the near term.
On the longer five-year view, platinum’s positioning is starting to lean toward the bullish side, though I would argue there is still some distance to cover before reaching anything close to an all-time COT extreme. For context, a commercials’ net position in the neighborhood of 4,000 to 5,000 contracts net long would represent a level approaching historical extremes. Currently, commercials are 11,744 contracts net short — so there is room left to develop.
It is worth noting that the most recent significant positioning extreme in platinum was on the bearish side, and the market’s subsequent behavior suggested what could be characterized as commercial capitulation — where the extreme pressure of margin calls, rather than fundamental positioning logic, drove the reading. That outcome is a useful reminder that extremes do not always produce the expected directional response, particularly in smaller markets like platinum where position sizes carry relatively more weight.
Gold followed with a 20% change in commercials’ net position, also qualifying as a bullish COT change signal. The weekly shift is clearly greater than average. On a shorter-term basis, a reading from March of this year served as a useful signal ahead of a sharp decline into the low 4,000s, with the market subsequently bouncing from that level. A similar dynamic appeared in June. These examples illustrate that even moderate readings can be meaningful when interpreted in the right context and relative to recent market behavior — though past signals are context, not guarantees of what follows.
Copper: A Developing Picture Worth Watching
Copper also showed a 20% change in commercials’ net position this week. Like platinum and gold, that is a larger than average shift, and it carries a bullish directional interpretation. However, I would characterize it as a developing signal rather than a strong positioning extreme. The commercials’ reading alone is not particularly significant in absolute terms.
What is more interesting in copper right now is the positioning among Large Speculators. Looking at the shorter-term data, speculative positioning is moving toward a level comparable to a reading from October 22nd that registered at 86 — which I would describe as the largest speculative extreme visible on that chart. Whether that confirms or simply rhymes with the current move is the key question. On the longer fifteen-year chart, copper did register a bearish COT extreme not long ago, and the rally has since stalled. The current direction of trader positioning suggests the rally could resume, but that remains a question rather than a conclusion.
The Euro: A 597-Report Extreme That Puts Context Around Commodity Markets
Outside the metals complex, the euro printed a 597-report extreme — equivalent to roughly ten years of COT history. That is the kind of extreme that earns attention. The last time positioning reached this level was around 2016, which at the time marked a significant multi-year base before the euro eventually moved materially higher.
This matters for Kitco readers because sustained dollar weakness — which is one possible implication of an extreme bullish positioning signal in the euro — has historically provided a supportive backdrop for dollar-denominated commodities, including precious metals. I want to be careful not to overstate that connection: COT extremes in the euro do not mechanically translate into metals price moves, and this remains a developing situation. But it is a legitimate piece of broader context when reading the metals signals this week.
Bringing It Together
What stands out in this week’s report is the alignment across the metals complex. Platinum, gold, and copper all registered bullish COT change signals in the same week, and the euro added a long-lookback extreme that reinforces the broader macro backdrop. None of these readings, individually or collectively, constitute a confirmed directional call — COT extremes and weekly change signals describe positioning, not predetermined outcomes. But the combination is notable, and it makes this a week’s data worth examining carefully rather than setting aside.
For traders who follow COT positioning alongside price and technical analysis, the current setup across precious metals deserves a close look.
Watch my full analysis here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBbxKnyQlKk&
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