Bullion has now rebounded after dropping 0.5% last week and remains in touching distance of an all-time high. For the year, the precious metal has gained almost 20%, largely on expectations of a Fed rate cut this year.
The recent easing of price pressures has boosted policymakers’ confidence that they can start to lower borrowing costs while refocusing their attention on the labor market, which is showing greater signs of cooling.
Markets are pricing in a 49% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows.
However, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said Saturday that she still sees upside risks for inflation and continued strength in the labor market, signaling she may not be ready to support a rate cut in September.
Investors are preparing for both US producer price and consumer price index numbers due this week, both of which will shed light on inflation in the world’s largest economy. While CPI is expected to show price increases picked up modestly in July, the annual metrics should continue to rise at a slow pace, analysts said.
Along with the rate-cut expectations, gold has also been supported by firm central bank buying globally and robust demand from Chinese consumers.
Gold remains “supported by geopolitical risks and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts amid heightened tensions” involving Iran and Israel as well as Ukraine, according to a Monday report from Saxo Bank A/S.
“Every way you look at it, gold now screens as a well-populated trade. The Street is unanimously bullish, but macro fund positioning may now be tapped out without an imminent recession,” TD Securities said in a note.
(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)