Palladium continued to be in a tight range as sellers weighed in on XPD/USD to trade it to the bottom side of the range.
The common charts ranged from around $1239 to $1264, based on the market feed, while the spot data recorded losses exceeding 2% during the trading session.
It joined a wider sell-off that started following palladium’s price breach of $1,360 at the beginning of June. Although short-term indicators show early signs of stabilization, the price has yet to break the pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
Palladium Falls Below Previous Close
Palladium opened on the one-day chart close to the settlement near $1,266 a year ago and was trending down throughout the morning. Price initially broke below $1,260 and went further down to the $1,235 level.
According to the TradingView chart, a midday recovery brought XPD/USD back close to $1,260 temporarily. That rally was short-lived, however, and buyers took the upper hand in the afternoon.
The price later hit an intraday low of the range around $1,222 but bounced back to the $1,239 mark. This creates the $1,220-$1,225 support area as the first area of support seen.
That area is followed by the next technical levels near the price of $1,200 and $1,180. The positive side: Palladium needs to take back $1,250 first, then wait for the resistance at $1,265.
Wider Structure Remains Bearish
In 30-minute sessions, perpetual chart palladium has been dropping from above $1,360 to the current level of $1,260. The steep break below $1,320 sparked an acceleration downward, but subsequent rallies were unable to hold on to $1,300.
Of particular interest, all of the recoveries were below the previous high. That structure asserts that sellers still own the larger time frame picture.
The Investing.com chart corroborates this interpretation. Palladium’s price is down by 3.18% on one week, 8.24% on one month, and 14.15% on three months. Its loss extended to 27.45% over the last six months.
Despite that, the 1-year performance was positive at 18.3%, indicating that the weak performance was a result of a higher increase earlier in the period.
Momentum Shows Early Improvement
The MACD line was hovering around -4.3, above the signal line around -4.9. Its weekly chart saw some positive momentum start, with the formation of a slight bullish trendline at 0.7 on the histogram, which is a weekly chart indicator that shows momentum.
Both of these were still negative, however. This indicates that a change in the trend is not confirmed and is only showing a decreased selling speed.
Even so, the technical chart shows the Chaikin Money Flow closed in the black at 0.02. That reading indicates that capital flows have settled, but that buyers haven’t yet made complete heels.
Palladium is now in a clear technical test near the $1,225 mark. A trendline support at this price point would have them looking to bounce again to $1,250 and $1,265. If it is broken down significantly, it would allow the $1,200 level to be breached, continuing the string of lower lows.