①Trump: Agreed to suspend bombings and attacks on Iran within two weeks; ②Due to war-related factors, OPEC’s oil production last month experienced its largest decline in decades; ③Goldman Sachs lowered its copper price forecast for 2026, citing an expected increase in oversupply; ④Bernstein: Strong demand for the iPhone 17 series led to a 26% surge in global sales in February.
Overnight Stock & Commodity Markets
Investor hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict drove U.S. stocks to erase losses in late trading, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices posting their fifth consecutive day of gains. As of this writing, all three major U.S. stock futures were up nearly 2% in after-hours trading.
Shortly before this report, Trump stated that he agreed to a two-week suspension of bombings and attacks on Iran. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also announced its acceptance of a ceasefire proposal put forward by Pakistan.
Following the news, spot gold surged over 2.5% during the Asian session on Wednesday, while spot silver rose more than 5%. WTI crude oil prices extended losses to 15%, and Brent crude futures plunged over 16%.
Middle East Conflict Express
[Trump: Agrees to Suspend Bombings and Attacks on Iran for Two Weeks]
U.S. President Trump stated on the 7th that he agreed to suspend bombings and attacks on Iran for two weeks. Trump said, ‘We have received a ten-point proposal from Iran, which we consider a viable basis for negotiations. The United States and Iran have nearly reached consensus on almost all previously disputed points, but the two-week period will allow the agreement to be finalized and completed.’
[Iran Accepts Pakistan’s Ceasefire Proposal]
In a statement issued in the early hours of the 8th local time, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council announced that, based on the Supreme Leader’s suggestion and approval by the Supreme National Security Council, it accepted the ceasefire proposal put forward by Pakistan.
[Maersk-Chartered Vessel Struck by Shells in the Strait of Hormuz]
A vessel chartered by Danish shipping giant Maersk was struck by shells in the Strait of Hormuz. The crew remained unharmed, but the ship sustained substantial damage above the waterline. The vessel is capable of autonomous navigation and is currently heading to the nearest port for inspection. Maersk did not disclose the source of the shells.
[Largest Decline in Decades for OPEC Oil Production Last Month Due to War Factors]
Surveys indicate that due to disruptions in oil exports from key member countries caused by the Middle East conflict, OPEC’s crude oil production in March experienced its largest decline in at least 40 years. According to the survey, the daily oil production of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plummeted by 7.56 million barrels, a drop of approximately 25%, to 22 million barrels, with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE suffering the greatest losses. In terms of barrels, this decline also surpasses the losses caused by the 1973 Arab oil embargo.
Other market news
[US Immigration Enforcement Uses Airport Security Data to Arrest Over 800 People, Sparking Enforcement Controversy]
Based on leads provided by airport security agencies, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested over 800 people between the start of Trump’s administration and February 2026, a figure significantly higher than previously disclosed data. Statistics show that the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) provided ICE with information on more than 31,000 passengers through its ‘Secure Flight Program,’ intended for potential immigration enforcement. Originally designed for anti-terrorism screening, the program was not meant for immigration enforcement purposes.
[IMF: Emerging Markets Need to Be Wary of Non-Bank Capital Volatility Risks]
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released Chapter Two of the Global Financial Stability Report on the 7th. This chapter emphasizes that while non-bank financial investment institutions can provide substantial funding to emerging market economies, these entities are highly sensitive to global risks, with capital volatility significantly higher than traditional banking institutions, posing challenges to emerging market economies. The content of the chapter released that day focuses on the risks posed by non-bank financial investment institutions. The IMF stated in the chapter that in recent years, emerging market economies have increasingly turned to non-bank channels when seeking external funding, but this trend also introduces new financial risks. Particularly during global shocks, the volatility of non-bank capital tends to be greater, and shifts in investment direction can increase vulnerabilities in emerging market economies.
[Goldman Sachs Lowers Copper Price Forecast for 2026 Amid Expectations of Expanding Supply Surplus]
Goldman Sachs Group recently warned that if the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz drags down global economic growth, copper prices could fall further. The bank now expects a global copper market surplus of 490,000 tons this year, up from a previous estimate of 380,000 tons, and has revised its average target price for copper in 2026 downward from $12,850 per ton to $12,650 per ton.
[Bernstein: Strong Demand for iPhone 17 Series Boosts Global Sales by 26% in February]
Bernstein analysts noted in a report on Monday that thanks to the strong sales performance of the iPhone 17 series, Apple’s smartphone product, the iPhone, maintained robust sales momentum last month. From September last year to January this year, overall sales of the iPhone 17 grew by 20% compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year for the iPhone 16. Global ‘sell-through sales’ (i.e., sales from retailers to end consumers) of iPhones surged by 26% year-over-year in February.