A commercial real estate CEO is sounding alarms about what a fresh wave of refinancing at today’s rates means for every business and renter in America, and the math behind his warning is more straightforward than the industry wants to…
Jeff Sica, chief executive of Circled Square Alternative Investments, described what he called a “primal scream from commercial real estate” after the Federal Reserve’s latest move. The underlying facts he cites are worth examining.
“Last week proved to me was you heard, basically, this primal scream from commercial real estate last week after kevin warsh raised interest rates 25 basis points and opened the door for future interest rate increases.” The Federal Reserve raised rates, though the reporting we checked does not identify who currently chairs it, according to Circled Square Alternative Investments.
What the Reporting Confirms
Both parts of Sica’s claim hold up. U.S. Bank reported that the Fed raised interest rates to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% in its first rate hike in three years, with more expected, in a U.S. Bank note dated September 16, 2026. Commercial Observer framed it as the first hike since 2023 as commercial real estate came to terms with the shift.
Others echo the property angle. CRE Daily wrote that the Fed rate hike raises commercial real estate refinancing pressure. Cushman & Wakefield published its own read on September 17, 2026 on what the hike means for commercial real estate. Connect CRE argued the move matters more than 25 basis points. Globest reported on September 16, 2026 that the hike carries serious long-term implications for the sector, and Globest followed on September 21, 2026 with reporting that higher rates deepen the private equity exit problem. thestreet.com described a hidden bill landing on commercial tenants, which is the same downstream point Sica makes.
$600,000 Figure and a Verification Gap
Sica’s central illustration: “The difference of a 4% loan and 7% loan is about $600,000 per year extra in interest.” He compares a 4% loan with a 7% loan. Without stating the principal amount, the figure cannot be verified against any particular building.
The trillion-dollar refinancing figure in our headline comes from our editor’s characterization of the segment and did not appear in the quoted remarks. We have not independently verified it.
Where Borrowing Costs Actually Sit
Commercial mortgages price off the long end of the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.96% on September 21, 2026, with the 30-year at 5.29%, according to Globest. The 10-year stood at 4.79% on September 1, 2026. The long end has been climbing, and that is the cost of capital refinancing actually faces.
Renters and the Pass-Through Question
Sica’s downstream argument: “Banks are going to need, you’re going to need to put up more money. There’s going to be a tremendous series of unintended consequences and in commercial real estate that is going to funnel down to just about every person who needs to rent space, who wants to rent an apartment, according to Circled Square Alternative Investments. It’s going to create inflation that people didn’t even know existed.”
A building refinanced at a higher rate must find the difference somewhere, and rent is the most available lever. Whether owners pass higher debt service to tenants depends on local vacancy and market conditions.
What Renters and Small Business Tenants Can Watch
The most useful signal is the refinancing calendar in a reader’s own market: which buildings on their block or in their office park were financed several years ago at low rates and are coming due into today’s curve. That is where any pressure gets applied first.
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