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April 18, 2024
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Can The Silver Price Rise To $100?


The price of silver will likely rise to $100 where it will enter a major top. This might happen in the timeframe 2026-2027, certainly not in 2024-2025. Silver will require exceptional market conditions like rising inflation or an extreme silver shortage.

All our silver forecasting is biased on historical data, market correlations and chart readings. It’s a data driven way to analyze precious metals, in the exact same way we successfully analyze other markets.

Just to be clear, the analyst team at InvestingHaven is unbiased. No silver perma-bulls over here.

Related – When Exactly Will The Price Of Silver Start A Rally To $50?

An important quote from the article mentioned above:

To be honest, our viewpoint is that all conditions are in place for silver to run to its two higher targets: $34.70 and $50. The question why silver is not trading at those levels is a good question to ask. The ‘silver manipulation’ theme comes up as an answer. Concurrently, the other answer that comes up is ‘opportunity’: if an asset is undervalued, it usually is a matter of time until a rebalancing act occurs.

With that said, we will take a big picture viewpoint in this article. While the points outlined above are relevant in 2024 and 2025, we think in terms of “how high can silver go this decade” in this article.

Remember, silver to $100 is not an idea that will materialize this year nor next year.

Silver price to $100: summary

We firmly believe that silver will rally to $50 in the not too distant future. All data points outlined in this article and other articles published in this silver section confirm this, in a very objective way.

The recent surge in CPI is not reflected in the silver price. A delayed upward move in silver in USD terms needs to bring the historical CPI/Silver correlation in synch.

However, a silver move to $100 requires extreme conditions. We mention 3 such conditions in this article:

  • an extreme silver shortage;
  • a series of rate cuts by policy makers;
  • hyperinflation

A combination of all some of these 3 conditions may be a catalyst to move silver past $50.

The current silver shortage may become extreme, in which case silver will not only move to $50 but may exceed it.

The issue with a silver price surge past $50 is that it will be so powerful, because of its triple top breakout over 45 years. The energy that will be unleashed, once silver moves past $50, is tremendous. In that scenario, silver has to go to the $100-120 area, simply because of chart and market dynamics following such an epic secular breakout.

Historical silver price trend

The longest silver price chart learns that silver has a relevant price history since the 70ies.

That’s why the longest relevant timeframe for silver’s price chart is 50 years.

Related – The 50-Year Silver Price Chart

That said, if we zoom out a few centuries, and look at the silver price chart, we understand that the 50-year cup-and-handle formation is the dominant pattern in recent history.

This historical silver price chart does not necessarily tell us whether silver will go to$100. It certainly does not invalidate the silver to $100 thesis, on the contrary. The point is this – silver’s historical chart is not sufficient to confirm a move to $100.

historical silver price

Silver price correlation with CPI

It gets really interesting when we consider the impact of CPI data on the price of silver.

From the learnings defined in the article 100-year gold chart:

When taking inflation into account, and adjusting the gold price for the CPI index, it gets clear how gold is a preservation of wealth and purchasing power. The historical CPI adjusted gold price looks very differently compared to the nominal gold price. It looks stable, in a wide range, not trending. That’s what capital preservation and wealth protection should look like.

Below is the silver price adjusted for CPI. In other words, what does the price of silver look like filtering out the CPI impact?

While the above silver price chart (USD denominated, factoring in CPI effects) shows wild swings, the one below moves in a specified range.

Equally interesting is the the absence of a swing to the top of the historical range when CPI exploded in 2022 and 2023. This clearly is because of monetary interventions by policy makers.

The probability of a delayed effect in the price of silver is high – while a delayed rally in silver may bring to $50, we doubt it will push silver to $100.

silver historical price cpi adjusted

 

The next chart confirms the historical correlation between CPI and the price of silver, visualized in a different chart format. It also debunks the myth that silver requires a recession to rise in terms of price.

The take-away from this chart, in our view – the inflation adjusted silver price when it topped in 1980 was $139.38, this implies that the current silver price reading in USD terms is significantly undervalued. In other words, the nominal price of silver is lagging CPI which is due to monetary interventions by central banks in recent years. Consequently, when rates stop rising, silver may finally adjust to the upside.

 

silver inflation adjusted

 

Silver price – is there a path to $100?

The 50-year silver price chart in nominal terms (USD) truly looks awesome, from a chart structure perspective.

Charts don’t lie – their dominant pattern carry useful information about future price trends – Taki Tsaklanos

What we clearly see on the long term silver price chart is a path to $50.

The cup-and-handle pattern is a reliable setup.

Note that the silver price chart remains the strongest bullish pattern on a secular timeframe that we currently see.

In other words, there is a very high probability outcome that silver will rise to $50 in the not too distant future. Silver will likely find resistance at $50, its former all-time highs. This implies that the path for silver to $100 is not a given, certainly not short to medium term.

silver price chart 50 years

For silver to rally to $100 we need exceptional or extreme market conditions.

Why do we think so?

Let’s do the math – silver from the current $23 USD/oz to $100/oz is a 5-fold rise. This is very similar to the big historical rallies from the past – 1979/1980, 2005/2007, 2010/2011. Conditions in those periods were exceptional or extreme (source):

  • 1979/1980 – extreme inflation.
  • 2005/2007 – extreme commodities bull market.
  • 2010/2011 – extreme stimulus by the Fed (2009) to end the global financial crisis.

What could bring silver to $100? We believe either another inflationary push and/or extreme silver shortage.

silver price to $100

Silver price to $100: potential catalysts

One of the catalysts for silver to move to $100 is an extreme silver shortage. While, currently, there is a silver shortage, it is not extreme, not yet – it might become extreme.

Another catalyst might be hyperinflation – while hyperinflation is no fun to go through, it will certainly benefit silver and gold holders. We truly hope we will not experience hyperinflation in our lifetimes.

A third catalyst might be a series of rate cuts by the Fed.

Ultimately, it might be a combination of the catalysts mentioned above.

If anything, the secular gold price to silver price ratio suggests that silver will start an epic rally, sooner rather than later.

We don’t know what the catalyst(s) will be, all we know is that the similar readings in the gold to silver ratio (as an indicator) has always forecasted a big silver price swing! The silver price swing to $50 might start any time now.

gold silver price ratio long term

Historical Silver to Yen correlation

Additional evidence of a silver price rally to $50, which ultimately might push silver to $100, is the historical correlation between the Yen and precious metals.

As seen below, the historical silver rallies coincided with a big swing in the Yen index.

yen silver correlation long term

At present day, the Yen is visibly making a triple bottom. If this triple bottom holds, we know for sure that silver is set to move much higher in 2024, presumably also in 2025.

yen silver correlation

 

This analyst is confirming our expectation of a silver rally to $50 to start soon:

Silver price to $100: timing

With all that said, the question comes up when exactly a silver rally to $100 may occur.

We want to emphasize the importance of breaking down the answer in two parts:

  1. The silver price rally to $50 is a high certainty outcome. It may happen in 2024 or in 2025, not later, is what all data points outlined in this article suggest.
  2. The big run of silver to $100 requires extreme conditions, like an extreme silver shortage or a series of rate cuts or hyperinflation or a combination. Those conditions are not visible, not yet, with the only exception being silver shortage. It is only possible to say that a silver rally to $100 is unlikely to happen in 2024 or 2025 unless the silver shortage gets completely out of hand.

Also, we want to remind readers that even the best analysts and forecasts have a really hard time getting silver price rallies right.

This one forecast did not materialize:

FAQ about the silver’s potential move to $100

Will silver ever move to $100?

The probability of silver to move to $50 is very high.

However, a silver move to $100 will require exceptional conditions.

When can silver move to $100?

Only if extreme conditions appear, like hyperinflation or an extreme silver shortage of rate cuts by the Fed, will silver be able to move to $100. The most imminent trend, of the three, is the developing silver shortage which might get out of hand and push silver above $50.

Is it a good thing if silver moves to $100?

Frankly, we are not sure we want to be living in a world in in which silver explodes to $100 unless it is because of an extreme silver shortage. In case of hyperinflation, a silver move to $100 will be reflecting a big loss in purchasing power which is something everyone will affect in a very negative way. It will be less about silver investing but more about protecting purchasing power.

 

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