Bitcoin’s short-term rebound is being supported by the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, spillover strength from the semiconductor rally, and continued inflows into spot ETFs. Leverage in derivatives and options markets has not surged, easing short-term downside concerns; however, risk-aversion sentiment persists over the medium and long term. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, a macroeconomic stance that reduced market uncertainty. Combined with the strong performance of the semiconductor sector and sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, this pushed Bitcoin’s price back to around $81,000.
Trading data showed that as of 8:04 a.m. on the 29th, BTC was trading at 108.84 million Korean won on the Korean platform Upbit, up 0.96% from the previous day; on Binance, BTC was quoted at $81,260, up 0.40% over 24 hours. Over the same period, ETH rose 0.23% to $2,358.54, while XRP fell 0.31% to $1.3.
Leverage and Derivatives Markets Remain Stable
Data showed that approximately $57.53 million worth of Bitcoin positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for 24.7% and shorts for 75.3%. Across the broader digital asset market, about $258.57 million in positions were liquidated. The rebound was mainly driven by a recovery in technology stock sentiment led by the semiconductor sector. On the 27th, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $176 million, marking the second consecutive day of inflows. Even when Bitcoin fell below $80,000, ETF investment demand remained persistent.
Trading volume in derivatives markets increased, but leverage did not expand significantly. Futures 24-hour trading volume rose 7.5% to $163.2 billion, while open interest increased by only 1.3%. When BTC’s price rose 2.3%, open interest actually fell 0.1%; when ETH’s price rose 2.7%, open interest increased by only 1.7%, indicating that the number of new positions opened was relatively limited.
Outlook Hinges on the Fed and Tech Stocks
The main factors affecting BTC’s price going forward will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the performance of technology stocks. The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%–4.00% at its FOMC meeting on the 28th and did not rule out the possibility of further rate hikes. On the tech stock front, Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) reported earnings that missed expectations, sending its shares sharply lower in after-hours trading, while Microsoft (MSFT) gained on the strength of its cloud computing business. For Bitcoin to sustain its rally, continued support from the external environment is still needed.
The True Meaning of Large Institutional Flows Remains Unclear
A wallet associated with BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recently received approximately $277 million worth of BTC. As of the 28th, a total of 3,441.176 BTC was transferred from Coinbase (COIN) Prime to multiple IBIT-related addresses controlled by BlackRock over a period of 3 to 5 hours, with a total value of approximately $276.7 million. The transfers were executed in multiple transactions, mostly in units of 300 BTC each, with a remainder of 141.176 BTC at the end. Coinbase Prime is the infrastructure vehicle through which BlackRock custodies the BTC held by IBIT. Such flows could stem from position adjustments triggered by subscriptions and redemptions, or from internal asset reallocation driven by custody needs. It is difficult to determine the scale of new purchases based solely on on-chain records, and the information asymmetry between on-chain asset movements and actual market demand also makes it challenging to predict institutional behavior.