[DigitalToday reporter Hyunwoo Choo] This week’s crypto market showed conflicting signals, with expectations for XRP to rebound even as activity on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) plunged. Regulatory uncertainty again weighed on the market as the chance of handling the U.S. Clarity Act by July 4 Independence Day appeared to waver. Bitcoin remained stuck in a range, and the rotation of funds into altcoins broadly was limited during the week.
• XRP raises possibility of repeating the 2024 rally; targets in the $8 range mentioned
• Analyst: “XRP chart is positive… could reach $3, $8, $17”
• XRP at a short-term crossroads; analyst: “$1.50 is the watershed for turning higher”
The most watched theme this week was a scenario for XRP to rebound. The possibility of a repeat of the XRP rally that shook the market with a rise of about 500 percent in the second half of 2024 emerged as a key topic. XRP is now trading more than about 60 percent below its peak, but many technical analysts interpreted the current pullback as a “retest phase before an up cycle” and suggested a possible move into the $8 range.
Analysts’ scenarios broadly split into three paths. In optimistic views, $6.5, $13 and even $60 were discussed. Even in more conservative views, analysis suggesting that a break above the $1.50 area is the key threshold for a short-term shift higher is dominant. On-chain data released this week also showed 93 percent of XRP addresses are small wallets holding only 2.7 percent of the circulating supply. That implies a high concentration among a small number of large holders, leading to an interpretation that the burden of profit-taking by small investors could be relatively low if prices rise.
By contrast, XRP remained stagnant without outperforming Bitcoin while Stellar (XLM) surged, showing an out-of-step move. Some in the market also raised a cautious view that it is necessary to more closely watch whether Ripple’s internal strategy is linked to XRP’s price trend, given signs of differentiated fund flows across the broader Ripple ecosystem.
• Has XRPL activity effectively stopped? Payment transactions converge toward “zero”; what happened
• Ripple CEO: “The crypto industry is at a turning point”; real-world cases unveiled at 10th anniversary Swell
Contrary to price expectations, data drew attention showing actual network activity on XRPL had shrunk to an effectively stalled level. An on-chain indicator showing payment transactions falling to near “zero” raised questions about the “payment utility” that is XRP’s fundamental value.
On this, Ripple’s camp instead kept up an aggressive stance. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse (브래드 갈링하우스) declared at the 10th anniversary Swell event that “now is a turning point for the crypto industry,” and presented shifting corporate payments on-chain as a core strategy. He laid out a blueprint in which corporate fund flows worth $13 trillion a year pass through the Ripple Treasury platform, and a significant portion of that will move on-chain within the next 5 years. He cited American Airlines’ payment for aviation fuel in Peru as an example and stressed that international payments that previously took 4 days could be sharply shortened on-chain.
• Can the U.S. Clarity Act be fast-tracked? Senate’s 60 votes and ethics clause are the battleground
• U.S. Clarity Act faces last-minute tug-of-war over passage before July 4 recess; what are the “three major obstacles”
• U.S. tech group including Amazon, Apple and Google urges Senate to act on Clarity Act
• U.S. game industry seeks “prediction market ban” provision in the Clarity bill
Expectations spread this week that it will be effectively difficult to meet the July 4 Independence Day goal for handling the U.S. Clarity Act, which would determine the regulatory environment for the overall crypto market. The White House crypto council presented July 4 as the target for enacting the bill, but within the Senate the prevailing view is that passage before the August summer recess is the first realistic deadline.
There are three obstacles. First is securing the 60 Senate votes needed to overcome a filibuster. With Republicans holding 53 seats, 7 Democratic votes are needed, but only 2 Democratic senators have publicly expressed support so far. Second is a confrontation between Democrats and the White House over an ethics provision aimed at the Trump family’s participation in crypto businesses. Democrats say it would be difficult to vote in favor without a provision limiting conflicts of interest related to cryptocurrencies for lawmakers and senior administration officials. Third, law enforcement agencies including the National Sheriffs’ Association oppose the bill, citing concerns it could hinder investigations into blockchain-related money laundering.
Galaxy Research lowered the likelihood of the bill passing within 2026 to around 60 percent, while the Polymarket prediction market reflects a passage probability of around 70 percent. A U.S. tech industry group that includes Amazon, Apple and Google sent a letter urging the Senate to act quickly, while the gaming industry is demanding the insertion of provisions related to prediction markets, as lobbying by stakeholders heats up. Industry warnings are also growing that if the bill fails in this session, broader discussions on digital asset market regulation could be delayed until 2030.
• An alt season will not come? Outlook also points to deepening tilt toward Bitcoin
• $13 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire soon; will June downside pressure increase as bears hold the upper hand
• Scaramucci: “Bitcoin is a de-government asset”; 5 reasons for a bullish case
Bitcoin continued to swing within a range this week without finding a clear direction. A warning emerged that downside pressure could increase in June as bear-leaning positions formed ahead of the expiration of $13 billion in options.
With Bitcoin dominance holding above 60 percent, the altcoin season index remains below half of the benchmark level of 75. Major altcoins such as Ethereum, Cardano and Zcoin are continuing attempts to rebound on individual catalysts, but the overall market continues to see funds concentrate in Bitcoin and stablecoins.
Anthony Scaramucci (앤서니 스카라무치) laid out five reasons for a bullish case on Bitcoin this week, stressing its structural appeal as a “de-government asset.” Analysis also spread that rotation of funds into altcoins, or an alt season, is effectively absent.
• Japanese corporate pension fund pushes to allocate 1 percent to cryptocurrencies
• “Crypto market resembles the post-dotcom-bubble period”; Bitwise CEO predicts a winner-takes-all era
• Changpeng Zhao: “AI agents will spread crypto-based finance to billions worldwide”
Notable news also emerged this week on institutional adoption. A Japanese corporate pension fund is pushing a plan to allocate 1 percent of its portfolio to cryptocurrencies. Japanese institutional investors are still in the early stages of entering crypto, but given the size of pension assets it could have a meaningful impact on global fund flows.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (창펑자오) said AI agents will become the main driver spreading crypto-based financial services to billions of people worldwide in the future. The Bitwise CEO said the current crypto market resembles the period after the collapse of the 2000s dot-com bubble, when leading companies survived and reshaped the industry, and predicted the market will be consolidated into a “winner-takes-all” structure. He interpreted this as the arrival of a selection phase in which only projects with real infrastructure and usability survive after the bubble fades.