Mexico’s public physical investment fell 18.4% in the first four months of 2026, while transport-related spending also declined, contrasting with the government’s MX$5.6 trillion infrastructure plan for 2026-2030.
Mexico’s public physical investment continued to contract during the 1Q26, raising questions over the pace of execution of the federal government’s infrastructure agenda despite the launch of a multi-year investment plan aimed at accelerating strategic projects.
Between January and April 2026, the federal government spent MX$240.97 billion (US$13.87 billion) on physical investment, according to data from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP). The amount represented an 18.4% annual decline, even after the government announced its Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development With Well-Being 2026-2030 earlier this year.
The decline means that for every MX$100 spent by the federal government during the period, only MX$6.90 went to physical investment. By comparison, pensions absorbed MX$7.60 of every MX$100, while the financial cost of public debt represented MX$12.30. Analysts cited by El Economista say the slowdown reflects the government’s fiscal consolidation strategy, which has limited public investment amid pressure from pensions, debt servicing, PEMEX support, and weaker public revenues.
The contraction follows a difficult year for public infrastructure spending. MBN previously reported that Mexico’s physical investment fell 28.4% in 2025, pushing investment levels to historic lows and deepening concerns over the country’s ability to sustain infrastructure development.
According to SHCP’s April public finance report, physical investment totaled MX$241 billion during the 1Q26 and was mainly allocated to housing and community services, fuels and energy, and transport. However, El Economista reported that investment linked to economic development fell 40.7% year over year, with tourism, fuels, and transport among the most affected functions. Transport spending dropped 33.9% annually, making the contraction particularly relevant for the infrastructure, communications, and transport sector.
Spending under the infrastructure, communications and transport branch fell 37.9% in real annual terms between January and April 2026, dropping from MX$31.24 billion in 2025 to MX$20.23 billion in 2026. In April alone, the contraction was even sharper, with spending falling 56%, from MX$18.17 billion to MX$8.35 billion.
In February, President Claudia Sheinbaum unveiled the Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development With Well-Being 2026-2030, which aims to mobilize MX$5.6 trillion in public and mixed investment across eight strategic sectors: energy, railways, highways, ports, health, water, education, and airports. The plan also includes MX$722 billion in additional investment for 2026, equivalent to 2% of GDP, on top of the resources already included in the Federal Expenditure Budget.
For the infrastructure, communications and transport sector, the investment gap is significant, as the government’s development strategy depends heavily on transport infrastructure to improve logistics connectivity, support nearshoring, expand passenger rail, modernize highways and ports, and strengthen regional competitiveness. However, the latest spending data show that execution in transport-related physical investment has not yet matched the scale of the government’s announced plans.
Jorge Cano, Coordinator of the Public Spending and Accountability Program, México Evalúa, says the current adjustment is particularly affecting PEMEX, while other areas of investment have only shown a modest recovery, reports El Economista. Dalia Toledo, Director of Public Finance and Anti-Corruption, Ethos, added that weak economic growth and lower public revenues have limited the government’s ability to invest according to plan.