In its annual Market 360.º study reported by NM, JLL considers that 2024 will be a “consistent year in terms of occupancy, investment and transactions in most real estate segments”, as a reflection of the improvement in macroeconomic conditions due to the expected decline in interest rates and inflation.
“This resilience of the operational performance of real estate in a context of imbalance between supply and demand, raises expectations for the maintenance of market value levels”, says the consultant in a statement, adding that it expects that housing prices, real estate rents of offices, retail and industrial and logistics, as well as hotel rates, will maintain the levels of 2023, and may even present “positive developments in some segments”.
In 2023, investment in commercial assets amounted to 1,700 million euros, a value that represents an annual drop of 50%. Office occupancy was also falling, which “decreased by around 60% in Lisbon”. In Porto, the trend was also downward, but less intense.
The housing market is expected to have registered a 20% drop in the number of homes sold and a 12% drop in the amount transacted, with an expectation of 137,000 homes sold for an estimated value of between 27,000 million and 28,000 million euros.
Quoted in the statement, Joana Fonseca, strategy director at JLL, states that the sectors most affected in 2023 “should not suffer additional pressure” in 2024, a year marked by elections in several countries and also in Portugal, “factors that always bring additional uncertainty to the market”.
“It is expected that commercial investment in 2024 will end in line with 2023, but that office occupancy will increase due to the growth in the average business area expected for this year and that the number of homes sold may rise”.