Sheng Songcheng is a former director of the People’s Bank of China’s statistics and analysis department. He was speaking at a forum in Shanghai on Saturday.
Said that the property downturn in China is likely to persist for two more years. It will begin to regain stability after that.
- New-home sales nationwide will likely shrink by another 50 million square meters both in 2024 and 2025
- 2025 annual total will plateau around 850 million square meters
- there were some ‘green shoots’ appearing in November and December, such as the pace of sales decline moderating by a half in 2023 from a year earlier
Info comes via Bloomberg (gated).
The recent events in the property sector in China include:
- the slide in Chinese home sales accelerated in December
- authorities have rolled out more support measures, such as relaxing homebuying curbs in major cities
The property sector is (was) a key growth engine for the economy, but in the past three years its been a drag, and has also contributed to heightened financial risks due to the unprecedented wave of developer defaults.