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Ares Commercial Real Estate is back in focus as fair value estimates shift, with the consensus price target revised slightly lower from US$5.50 to about US$5.38. That move sits alongside mixed analyst calls, where some have lifted individual targets, such as from US$4.50 to US$5 or by US$1, while others, including JPMorgan, have trimmed their view by US$0.50. As you read on, you will see how these cross currents shape the evolving story around the stock and what to watch next in the analyst narrative.
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Wells Fargo lifted its price target on Ares Commercial Real Estate by US$1, which signals a more constructive view on how the company is executing against its current market challenges.
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BofA raised its target to US$5 from US$4.50 after updating estimates across its mortgage finance coverage. This indicates that Ares Commercial’s valuation still has room to adjust as fresh data comes through.
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BofA continues to rate the shares Underperform. This tells you that, even with the higher US$5 target, the firm sees more attractive opportunities elsewhere in the mortgage finance group.
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JPMorgan cut its price target by US$0.50, reflecting caution around the risk and return profile at current levels and reminding investors that execution and asset quality remain under close scrutiny.
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We’ve flagged 2 risks for Ares Commercial Real Estate. See which could impact your investment.
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Ares Commercial Real Estate reported no share repurchases under its existing buyback program from October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, with 0 shares repurchased for $0 million in that period.
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The company disclosed that, as of December 31, 2025, it had not executed any repurchases under the buyback program announced on August 6, 2024.
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The absence of buyback activity indicates that the recent share count and cash levels were unchanged by this specific repurchase authorization over the disclosed period.
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Fair value moved from US$5.50 to about US$5.38 per share.
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Revenue growth remained around a 5.16% decline.
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Net profit margin stayed effectively unchanged at about 37.10%.
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Future P/E moved from 16.98x to about 16.36x.
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The discount rate moved from 8.25% to about 7.73%.