The term ‘energy superpower’ only has meaning in relation to true superpowers, such as China, the Soviet Union and the U.S., where its leverage serves as a mechanism for reducing the strain of an otherwise asymmetric relationship. To genuinely qualify as an energy superpower, a country needs three things: a large share of the world’s internationally traded energy; free access to global energy markets, including the infrastructure to reach them; and real national control over how that energy is produced and directed in service of national goals.
“We provide an enormous share of the world’s traded energy, but we don’t currently have the infrastructure for truly free access to global markets in the same way that current energy superpowers have. And we don’t yet have a coherent strategy — although we’re working on that — for turning that energy into national power.”
According to Calnan, there are two pressing questions embedded in building that strategy: Should Canada think of its energy as an economic input or as a source of geopolitical leverage? And, if it does think of its energy as a source of leverage, what are the political implications of using the energy weapon to access the leverage?
“Canadian energy should be understood as an economic input for growing our own economy, not as a lever to be pulled against our trading partners and especially not against the United States,” said Calnan. “Understood that way, Canada can still meaningfully claim a version of energy superpower status. However, this status should be based on economic growth, not geopolitical coercion.
“The term energy superpower will continue to be favoured politically, of course, but the better phrase for where we’re headed isn’t really energy superpower in the classic understanding of it, but rather energy super-partner.”
Read: Canada an attractive market to global investors, but potential yet to be tapped: CPP Investments
Global total energy supply runs about 600 exajoules per year, he said, and the top five consumers are China, India, Japan, Russia and the U.S. Combining the energy content of oil, gas and coal, the top three net energy exporters are Russia, Saudia Arabia and Canada.
“In my view, total energy supply is a good proxy for base economic strength — a country’s raw ability to marshal energy toward its national goals. . . . Of course, GDP is a much more cited number, but in my mind, this is what really sticks out to me. And as the eighth-largest energy consumer in the world, Canada is strongly positioned for the 21st century.”
Canada has set a target of doubling the value of its exports to non-U.S. markets, with additional energy infrastructure a big part of that diversification, said Calnan, highlighting the two main paths: Asia and Europe. The latter will require building entirely new infrastructure across the Canadian Shield to the East Coast, while the Indo-Pacific route, by way of the Trans Mountain Pipeline’s expansion and LNG Canada’s first phase, have established Canada as a stable source of energy for many countries in the region.
Read: Domestic energy investment opportunities growing in Canada: IMCO
In terms of major infrastructure investment, Calnan pointed to the Arctic, noting Canada’s sovereignty over the region is something that’s deeply important for Canada’s national security. “An energy super-partner doesn’t just diversify outward; it also finishes the job at home in the parts of the country still running on diesel shipped in by barge.”
Returning to the central question of whether Canada is an ‘energy superpower,’ he argued Canada isn’t one yet and said the country shouldn’t spend its limited political and fiscal capital chasing the title. Instead, he said, it can become an energy super-partner: using its abundance to build strength at home, including with openness to foreign direct investment; diversifying to reduce the odds that a change in mood in one capital can upend the country’s economic model; and building durable coalitions with other countries facing the same asymmetry.
But none of this matters without capital, said Calnan, including long-duration investment from pension funds and other institutional allocators. “Pipelines, LNG terminals, transmission lines, nuclear reactors — these aren’t short-term bets. They’re decades-long commitments that only make sense if you believe that Canada is going to keep building steadily, predictably and without the kind of dramatic policy reversal that undermines your bet on our beautiful country.”
Read more coverage of the 2026 Alternative Investment Conference.