Bitcoin and stablecoins dominated digital asset discussions this past week.
Bitcoin
“Trump just handed the markets the biggest disinflationary event of 2026, and Bitcoin shot up on the news. But I’d be cautious about assuming this is the end of Bitcoin’s woes. There’s more weighing down the price than just the Iran war, and those headwinds remain, which is why the bounce has been so lackluster.
“First, there’s the Strategy overhang. The company holds around 4% of the circulating Bitcoin supply, but it’s trading at 84% of its Bitcoin value and quickly running out of options to prop up its share price. On top of this, the quantum threat remains unresolved, and ETF flows are sluggish at best. Plus, investors are simply too focused on the current momentum trade – AI – to give Bitcoin the time of day.
“So far, I’m not seeing anything in the chart that would suggest the return of the structural bull trend. Bitcoin hasn’t recovered any of the key levels I’ve been watching, like the 200-week exponential moving average. If it confidently climbs above $70K and reclaims previous support levels, like $74K, that would give me more confidence. Until then, this is looking more like a dead cat bounce.”
– Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau
“I’d frame this as a relief move that the market hasn’t fully bought yet, rather than clear risk-on redeployment into Bitcoin. The tell is the price action itself — oil dropped 4%-plus, and Asian equities jumped 3%-plus on the ceasefire, but BTC barely budged, holding its recent ~$63–65K range and only just reclaiming a two-week high near $65.5K.
“That hesitation is rational: this is the third truce attempt, and BTC fully round-tripped the relief rallies after the April ceasefire and the June 9 strikes both collapsed. Traders look like they’re waiting on the June 19 signing in Switzerland before pricing anything durable.
“On-chain, I’m not seeing convincing redeployment into BTC yet. Spot ETFs just came off four straight weeks of outflows (~$5.4B, including a record ~$3.4B week), and the streak only just paused — so the marginal institutional bid hasn’t clearly returned. Large holders and long-term holders were net trimming into late May. The one constructive signal is steady net outflows from exchanges into cold storage, which tightens available supply if demand does come back.
“Net: I’d call it a short-term relief rally for now, not a regime change. A real retest of $70K likely needs two things to line up — ETF flows flipping decisively positive and a soft macro backdrop (cheaper oil feeding through to less hawkish central-bank policy and less carry-trade pressure). With the Fed on deck this week, that’s the swing factor I’d watch.“
– Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis
“Sentiment has picked up steam across markets, both stock markets and crypto alike, as the macro environment begins to become slightly more supportive of risk-on assets. The US-Iran interim peace deal has caused markets to reduce expectations for a Fed rate hike, and a plunge in oil prices has helped support risk-on speculation. According to Fed Funds futures, traders expect a 75% probability of a rate hike from the Fed by year-end, down significantly from a 100% chance only two weeks ago.
“As such, we’ve seen Bitcoin (BTC) briefly trade to $67K following its drop earlier in the month to a low last seen in October 2024, while ETH has reclaimed the $1,700 level, which it had previously struggled to break through.
“Our data is showing us that we’re seeing a return to a low volatility environment, following the peace deal announcement. Seven-day BTC ATM IV is trading around 33%, only a few percentage points above the year-to-date low of 28%. We’ve seen this pattern of seasonality over the past three years, with demand for options falling to lows over the summer period between the months of May and September since 2023.
– Thahbib Rahman, research analyst, Block Scholes
Stablecoins
“People, companies, and corporations are not going to stop using stablecoins because the stock price of Circle’s down, or because any specific protocol token is down. So if there’s a specific company that is adopting USDT and other stablecoins, because it’s faster, cheaper, better to use it in a specific corridor, they’re going to keep using it regardless of the Bitcoin or the Ethereum price.
“Brazil is one of the only top 20 economies in the world that has a currency that can’t be settled outside of Brazil. You can’t have dollar accounts in Brazil. So by us actually enabling a BRL stablecoin, we could actually now enable a connection, a bridge, between the liquidity of the domestic markets and Tether, for example.
“You have so many companies offering euro accounts, IBANs. But you don’t see the same for Brazilian reals. So I do think there’s an end for euro stablecoins, but it’s not as dire as you have for the Brazilian real.
“Being regulated in one end of the transaction is great. But I think that it really gets the most value out of having both sides of the transaction being a regulated party. And being able to build systems and build flows that otherwise you wouldn’t be able to build if you weren’t regulated on both sides of the transaction.”
– Bernardo Brites, CEO, Trace Finance
SpaceX IPO
“From a marketing perspective, SpaceX has done something very few companies ever achieve. It has turned highly complex engineering into mainstream entertainment. Rocket launches are watched like sporting events. Starship test flights generate global headlines. Even setbacks often become part of the story rather than damaging it. That’s an incredibly powerful brand position.
“The strongest brands don’t just sell products. They sell participation in a bigger narrative. SpaceX isn’t really marketing rockets. It’s marketing the future. Investors, customers, and even casual observers feel like they’re participating in something larger than themselves. That’s a huge reason why demand for a potential IPO would likely be enormous from Day One.
The company has also benefited from something that’s becoming increasingly important in modern markets: authenticity. Whether people love or dislike Elon Musk, there’s very little corporate polish around SpaceX compared to traditional aerospace companies. The company feels ambitious, experimental, and mission-driven. In an era where many public companies sound almost identical in their communications, that differentiation matters.
The success of a SpaceX IPO would likely extend far beyond the company itself. It could reignite interest in long-term innovation investing. Over the past few years, markets have often focused on AI, crypto, and short-term trading opportunities. SpaceX reminds investors that some of the biggest opportunities can emerge from solving real-world engineering challenges over decades rather than quarters.
I also think the IPO would become a major test case for how modern investors value frontier technologies. SpaceX sits at the intersection of aerospace, telecommunications, defense infrastructure, manufacturing, and data networks through Starlink. Traditional valuation frameworks struggle to capture businesses that operate across so many sectors simultaneously. That’s a challenge investors will increasingly face as technology companies continue to blur industry boundaries.
“Perhaps the most important implication is what comes next. A successful SpaceX IPO could create a roadmap for other ambitious private companies to eventually access public markets without sacrificing their long-term vision. For years, many high-growth firms stayed private longer because founders worried that public markets would prioritize quarterly earnings over innovation.”
– Ivan Patriki, cofounder, QuantMap