COMEX gold was last seen at $4,833.10 per ounce, up 0.09%. In contrast, COMEX silver declined 0.70% to $79.48 per ounce.
Global cues: Equities firm, oil eases
Asian equities opened higher, with benchmark indices in Japan, South Korea and Australia advancing, pushing the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index up around 0.3%. Gains tracked cautious optimism that fresh diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran could ease tensions.
Oil prices, a key driver of inflation expectations, slipped in early trade. Brent crude fell about 0.7% to $94.80 per barrel after a sharp rise in the previous session, as markets reacted to the possibility of renewed talks and partial easing of supply disruptions.
Meanwhile, US equity futures edged higher after a mild decline in the previous session, signalling steady risk appetite.
Geopolitics remains the dominant driver
Market direction continues to hinge on developments in the US-Iran standoff, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global oil transit chokepoint. While there are tentative signs of dialogue, uncertainty persists over whether a durable ceasefire can be achieved.
Disruptions in energy supply have already heightened inflation risks globally. Typically, such conditions support gold as a hedge, but the impact is being counterbalanced by expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Dollar strength, rate outlook cap upside
The US dollar recently touched a one-week high, reflecting resilience in the American economy and shifting expectations around interest rates. Markets have sharply reduced bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with yields on 10-year Treasuries rising above 4.5%.
Higher interest rates tend to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold and silver, limiting their upside despite safe-haven demand.
The Indian rupee, meanwhile, stabilised near 93 per dollar after central bank intervention helped curb volatility.
Strong ETF inflows, central bank buying support gold
Investor flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain robust. Early April saw net inflows of about 21 tonnes globally, indicating sustained institutional interest even outside crisis periods.
Central banks have also continued accumulating gold reserves, particularly in emerging markets such as China and India, reinforcing long-term demand.
Silver faces mixed fundamentals
Silver’s outlook remains more complex. On one hand, supply constraints persist, with global markets witnessing a structural deficit for multiple years. Strong import demand from China has further tightened availability.
On the other hand, industrial demand — a key pillar for silver — is expected to soften slightly this year, creating near-term pressure on prices. Policy-related disruptions, including India’s temporary import curbs, have also added uncertainty.
‘Bullish bias, but volatility likely’
According to Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions and President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, gold and silver are currently being influenced by a “complex web” of geopolitics, monetary policy and investment flows.
“Precious metals are no longer moving on a single narrative. While geopolitical risks and central bank buying support prices, a firm dollar and rate outlook continue to exert pressure,” he noted, adding that the broader trend remains positive with a “buy on dips” approach.
Technical outlook
Gold is facing resistance near the $4,850 an ounce level, with a sustained breakout potentially opening the path toward $5,000 an ounce. On the downside, support is seen around $4,600 an ounce.
Silver, after reaching targets near $82 an ounce, may consolidate in the near term before attempting further upside toward $84 and $90 an ounce levels.