Demand is holding – but the cracks are showing
According to the survey 72% of respondents expect private credit deployment to increase over the next 12 months, and 66% anticipate institutional fundraising to rise over the same period. Nearly 80% expect the asset class to deliver returns that match or exceed historical levels – historically around 9–10% gross, unlevered annualized for direct lending.
But look beneath those top-line numbers and a different picture emerges. Investors and limited partners (LPs) are considerably more cautious than the fund managers and lenders who run the products.
Twelve percent of investors now expect deployment to decline, up from zero in the April 2026 survey, while only 18% of investors expect a significant increase in deployment, compared with 28% of fund managers.
On spread premiums, 56% of investors now expect returns of 100 basis points or less over broadly syndicated loans – up sharply from 20% six months prior. Fund managers moved in the opposite direction, with 78% expecting premiums of 200 basis points or more.
“Investors and limited partners are generally more cautious than fund managers and lenders, particularly on deployment, spreads and the duration of the wealth-flow slowdown,” the Bloomberg Intelligence report states, citing findings from its survey.