Metal markets have been volatile during this year’s commodities shocks, but Goldman Sachs says the roller coaster ride isn’t over.
Daan Struyven, the bank’s co-head of global commodities research, said investors should expected more volatility in critical metals, including silver, copper, platinum and palladium. In a note to investors last week, he cited high uncertainty from trade wars as a fresh catalyst for more swings.
“Implementing tariffs is unlikely to create new critical mineral supply because mines and smelters take far longer to build than tariffs take to change,” Struyven wrote.”But the risk of tariffs still achieves a national-security objective by pulling metal inventories into the US without requiring large-scale government purchases.”
Struyven noted that the trade wars and tariff tensions have resulted in weaker liquidity in markets outside the US. Even if global stockpiles are high, metals can still be prone to extreme price swings in the event of a sudden buying frenzy as countries try to hoard supply.
Throughout 2025 and early 2026, the metals story has shifted beyond gold, which had a wild meme-like rally last year, to metals like silver, copper, and platinum. This change sparked sharp price increases outside the US, including a short squeeze that sent silver prices in London to their first record high in 45 years.
Now, current market conditions suggest that similar scenarios could play out as trade uncertainty remains high.
“While investor demand has softened as the market now prices a Fed hiking cycle, we expect much of the metal pulled into the US to remain trapped there, leaving available ex-US inventories tight and creating scope for a repeat of the 2025H2/2026H1 volatility should investor demand recover,” Struyven added.
Copper could be particularly vulnerable to more big price swings in the near future. As Struyven points out, the metal has been in focus recently due to its role in the AI infrastructure buildout, and fears of a shortage have risen recently, with demand expected to exceed supply for the next decade, according to an analysis earlier this year.
Struyven noted that even if metal prices rise, some investors may keep buying, at least for a while. Higher prices may reinforce the notion that the metals trade is booming, but this could result in higher costs for companies that use metals in manufacturing.