Bitcoin’s pullback is deeper, but not drastic enough for my dip buy. Altcoin Close Long warnings are building while macro bullish trends and selective Springboard setups remain intact. Patience matters more than chasing either a bounce or a warning.
Bitcoin support is not enough to make this my dip buy
BTC pulled back another 1.79% on Wednesday, likely because inflation numbers came in hot. This dip is not for buying BTC yet in my view: it is nowhere near drastic enough. Valid 4-hour TBO Close Shorts coexist with a fall to 4-hour Support and nearby historical TBO Support. I will not really care about a further droop until RSI goes oversold—it was still at 39—or BTC dumps to the daily Slow line, currently just above $71,000. Those are my watch conditions, not evidence that either has already happened.
Ethereum keeps its macro trend while I wait for $2,104
ETH closed down 3% but held the short-term support from last Thursday’s dump. Wednesday’s RSI higher low and the gently rising Slow line leave the macro trend bullish. ETH already had a bullish RSI reset on Saturday. If ETH falls to the Slow line at $2,104, I will happily buy some; I see no cause for panic or a rush to build a position now. Separately, ETH/BTC almost reached the bottom of its daily Cloud after a mini bullish RSI reset. The ratio is not an ETH dollar-price target.
Bitcoin dominance prints an exhaustion breakout
BTC.D rose to 60.46% and printed a TBO Breakout at the top of the move: an exhaustion breakout in my view, not a bullish BTC price signal. Combined stablecoin dominance closed green and remains in daily bullish consolidation. A quick wick to its weekly Fast line, currently 10.182%, would fulfill the previous Close Long and give us the long-awaited dip-buy opportunity so the recovery rally can resume. That is a conditional scenario, not a completed wick. Once BTC.D starts falling, ALTs will start rallying as long as combined stablecoin dominance is not pumping. BTC.D already had one bearish RSI reset, followed by a higher high on parabolic RSI. A break of that support line plus another bearish RSI reset should confirm the downtrend to lower lows. ETH.D fell with RSI without worrying me. SOL.D avoided a new low while RSI went lower, developing an oversold bounce setup; if SOL.D starts moving up, SOL should follow afterward. Dominance is market share, not spot price.
Altcoin reversal warnings build without ending the macro thesis
OTHERS.D confirmed a TBO Close Long, a bearish reversal signal that dampens the short-term ALT rally. As long as its Slow line continues pointing up, which it does, we should see a bounce back above the Cloud. If that bounce fails, I see a massive ALT dip-buy opportunity instead. TOTALE50.D closed above the Cloud with Slow still rising, while TOTALE100.D returned inside the Cloud in bearish consolidation. Separately, dollar-cap TOTALES confirmed a second Close Long close to the first, a really bearish warning; its Slow line remains angled upward and TBT Wave is above 6, so it will eventually come out on top and go higher. TOTALE50 has no Close Longs, while TOTALE100 printed one. OTHERS—not OTHERS.D—printed a second Close Long: still macro bullish, but a strong bearish reversal warning. The response is not panic; it is sticking to the plan of being ready to buy the dip.
Dollar divergence meets broader risk warnings and a metals bounce
DXY wicked above the 0.5 Fibonacci level on hot PPI and CPI numbers. A higher price high with a lower RSI high is bearish divergence. DXY was falling early Thursday, moving TBO Resistance to the day’s high so far; a pullback looks imminent in my view. EURUSD shows the inverse, bullish divergence. USDJPY did not pump and looked lower; closing below the daily Cloud would pivot it back to strong bearish mode. USDJPY has five confirmed 4-hour Close Longs, so it is definitely due for a pullback. SPX and NDX have new weekly bearish divergences despite the broader strength; SPX still has a strong bullish Slow line, OBV and Wave. Russell 2000 is working on a weekly Close Long and weekly RSI is oversold. NVDA printed another Close Long but remains macro bullish; GME is likely printing bearish RSI divergence. VIX rose only to 16.86. The Nikkei was down over 4% with a Close Long developing; Shanghai RSI was finally going oversold, Hang Seng remained strong bearish, and KOSPI gapped down again with RSI at 9.33, negative Wave and a weekly Close Long in progress. Oil futures hit resistance on Wednesday, RSI is likely putting in a lower high and volume is falling. Gold was up 1% so far; silver is already bouncing over 1% so far on the day after hitting TBO Support and oversold RSI. If you bought silver’s dip, the Fast line is always the first take-profit target—not a reason to expect $100. I was wrong on uranium: it fell over 5%, went oversold again without a bounce, and was below historical Support. PAXG/BTC printed a bullish divergence Cluster; its weekly Close Long is due to be filled by a flick of Fast, a 12% bounce in that ratio—not a gold or BTC spot-price target.
NEAR offers a Springboard setup amid selective altcoin strength
NEAR is at Fast for a Springboard Bounce setup from 4.827 to TBO Resistance at 6.000. Many ALTs remain oversold and weak, and I am patient enough to wait for lower lows. Watch daily Slow and TBO Support: SOL’s levels are 87.75 and 66.59 respectively. I do not expect daily Support to be reached, but a wider panic sell-off there would be a great oversold dip-buy location. ZEC closed its second Close Long; LINK is printing more Close Longs, with a possible downside destination at Slow 9.923 if that even happens. XLM became strong bearish below the Cloud; MNT is below it with an Open Short developing. More confirmed Open Shorts are exciting to me because we will likely see Close Shorts again and begin the next bullish reversal to higher highs. FIL printed a second bearish divergence Cluster but has not closed inside the Cloud; AERO remains strong bullish without breaching its Cloud. STRK is approaching the 0.236 Fib at 0.06871, which should line up with Fast. CAKE printed a third Close Long. ZRO has a Springboard setup from Fast 1.865 to Resistance 2.161; KAIA is near its 0.236 Fib and about to tag Fast at 0.0422. PYTH closed above long-term overhead resistance, a major move. OP had a bearish divergence Cluster but never closed inside the Cloud, and I still expect a bullish pump. CARDS already bounced 28% after returning to Fast, stopping just below TBO Resistance. MET remains strong bullish with a setup from Fast 0.3603 to Resistance 0.4418; W has retraced to Fast for a setup from 0.01545 to 0.02050. A third consecutive 2Z Breakdown is developing and deserves caution. WAL pumped over 50%, closed above Resistance and the 0.236 Fib, and printed a Breakout. It is crazy short-term overbought and could pull back.
Learn my strategies and the tools I use every day by visiting The Complete Cryptocurrency Investor by Mastering Assets.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.