Forecast Trend Report by Period
The altcoin market is rebounding in the short term, but gains are still concentrated in small- and mid-cap tokens with coin-specific catalysts. Analysts say it is too early to view the move as a broader recovery across altcoins, with policy uncertainty and high interest rates continuing to weigh on sentiment.
About 190 Tokens Rise, With Biggest Gains Focused in Smaller Coins
Among the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, about 190 advanced over the past week while about 100 declined. Even so, the biggest percentage gains were concentrated in small- and mid-cap tokens buoyed by token-specific developments. Rather than a marketwide rally, trading remained selective, with performance diverging by coin.
CoinMarketCap data on August 7 showed SkyAI (SKYAI) posting the biggest gain over the past week, surging 309%. Cysic (CYS) climbed 174%, Bitway (BTW) rose 122%, and Cashcat (CASHCAT) jumped 114%. ON (ON) gained 78.8%, Anvil (ANVL) added 50.9%, EHEX (EHEX) advanced 28.6%, and River (RIVER) rose 28%.
Cashcat drew particular attention after it was listed on Bitstamp, the cryptocurrency exchange owned by Robinhood, on August 6. Expanding on-chain activity, including a recent increase in total value locked on Robinhood Chain, also appears to have supported sentiment.
Some larger and mid-cap altcoins also rebounded. Cardano (ADA) rose 18.9%, Ethena (ENA) gained 18.7%, Allora (ALLO) climbed 16.7%, Algorand (ALGO) added 15.1%, Pump.fun (PUMP) rose 13.6%, Zcash (ZEC) gained 10.5%, Atom (ATOM) advanced 10.2%, Litentry (LIT) added 9.1%, Plume (PLUME) rose 7%, and AKE (AKE) gained 6.5%.
Some tokens fell sharply. ODEERA (BEAT) plunged 45.7%, with profit-taking after last month’s rally compounded by concern over a token unlock.
Lido DAO (LDO) also came under pressure, falling 20.3%. A recently released draft Ethereum proposal, EIP-8361, weighed on sentiment. Investors are concerned the proposal could reduce staking rewards and squeeze the profitability of liquid staking protocols.
Broad Altcoin Recovery Still Looks Premature as Policy, Rate Risks Persist
Analysts say sharp gains in some altcoins still do not amount to a broader recovery across the market. Policy uncertainty remains high, borrowing costs are elevated, and capital is flowing only into select tokens.
Policy risk remains a key overhang for altcoins. The CLARITY Act, a US crypto market structure bill, is now effectively set to miss Senate passage before the August recess, pushing further debate to September or later. Disagreements remain over ethics provisions and whether stablecoins should pay rewards or interest. On prediction market Polymarket, the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year once topped 60% but had fallen to 14% as of the day of the report. If tensions in the Middle East worsen and drive oil prices and US Treasury yields higher again, appetite for risk assets could weaken, with small- and mid-cap altcoins likely to come under pressure first.
That caution is also showing up in capital flows. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has recovered to about $2.21 trillion, returning to levels seen at the end of last month, but the gains have not spread across altcoins more broadly. Alex Kuptsikevich, an analyst at FxPro, said only some altcoins, including Theta, SushiSwap and Aptos, have shown strength, while fading expectations for the CLARITY Act and a shift of capital into equities are limiting optimism in crypto markets.
Some analysts also say the market still needs to confirm a bottom. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, said Bitcoin has entered the late phase of a bear market based on past cycles, but a bottom has not yet been confirmed. Historically, bear-market lows have often formed between late September and mid-December, suggesting weakness could persist for several more months. Bitcoin dominance has continued to rise, while capital has yet to spread into altcoins, making it too early to call a full recovery in the altcoin market.
Still, short-term positioning is showing somewhat more constructive signals than before. Wintermute, a crypto market maker, said major digital assets have held up relatively well despite pressure from high rates and the shock from AI fund liquidations, suggesting much of the additional selling may already have been absorbed. Open interest in major cryptocurrencies remains low, while positions are being built in some tokens, leaving room for short-term spikes driven by technical factors. Even so, if last week’s lows are broken again as trading volume rises, that would signal selling pressure remains in the market.
Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io