Prediction: A $5,000 Investment in IonQ Could Be Worth This Much by 2028

With the acquisition of SkyWater now closed, IonQ raised its 2026 revenue outlook to between $450 million and $460 million. Of course, investors should realize that much of the increase in sales comes from acquired semiconductor manufacturing revenue rather than accelerating demand for quantum computers.

Profitability is my main concern with IonQ. The company reported a second-quarter operating loss of approximately $337 million, up from $160 million in the second quarter of 2025. Although the company carried approximately $2.9 billion in cash and investments at the end of the second quarter, this might not provide as much financial flexibility as you’d think, given IonQ’s burn rate.

$5,000 invested in IonQ might be worth less than you think

As of this writing (Oct. 8), IonQ stock trades around $40 and boasts a market capitalization of approximately $16 billion. Wall Street expects roughly $1.1 billion in revenue by 2028, representing extraordinary growth from 2025’s $130 million.

IONQ Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts

Here’s where things get interesting: Suppose IonQ actually achieves this forecast and trades at a 15-times price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. That would imply a market capitalization of approximately $16 billion. In other words, IonQ could increase revenue more than eightfold from last year and still trade at today’s valuation.

Even in a more optimistic scenario where IonQ commands 20 times its 2028 sales, its market capitalization would reach $21.2 billion, representing about a 33% upside. This would turn a $5,000 investment into roughly $6,600. That’s an attractive return in just two years but would require near-flawless execution by management and the market to assign a premium valuation multiple.

Both scenarios assume there is no meaningful change in shares outstanding, which hasn’t been the case over the last year. IonQ has issued meaningful stock to fund its acquisitions, diluting shareholders in the process.

The theme here is that IonQ stock is already priced for considerable future success. I see IonQ stock as a speculative hold rather than a compelling buy right now. While the company could become a major beneficiary of quantum computing, investors may not necessarily be rewarded with multibagger returns.

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Adam Spatacco has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Prediction: A $5,000 Investment in IonQ Could Be Worth This Much by 2028 was originally published by The Motley Fool