For the last few months, one has
observed a very palpable feeling of buoyancy in the country. The monsoon has
been bountiful and well-distributed, manufacturing is going through a boom,
exports are growing, and the stock-markets are mirroring the
“feel-good� factor even as they feed it through a strong bull-run.
The economy seems set to grow at over 7%, and the fact that forex reserves will
certainly cross the $100 billion mark in a few months provides sufficient
safeguards against any contingencies on the external front. The low interest
rates are a boon to both corporate and individual borrowers, and are providing a
push to investment.
Research studies are forecasting India’s entry
into the big league in a few years. Already our prowess in fields like IT, Space
and Atomic Energy has been acknowledged and has received world-wide acclaim. The
geo-political importance of India at the global level is now well recognised.
Strategists in the west are also discussing the military and political
implications of a possible Russia-India-China alliance. In addition, they now
need to be concerned about the economic impact. Apart from a new block, they
will have to contend with BRIC: the acronym in the recent study by Goldman Sachs
which predicts the growing economic importance of Brazil, Russia, India and
China. The report sees India as being the third largest economy in the world by
2050.
This year seems to provide a good foundation for launching the
country into a higher orbit: a period of sustained and rapid growth. Our aim
must be to achieve a decade of growth of 8% to 10% per annum. Many analysts see
this as feasible, subject to certain conditions, primary amongst them being
reforms promoting liberalisation and privatisation. Improvements in roads,
airports, sea-ports, railways and power are seen as being key elements to
improve efficiency. Work underway on these has already seen signal successes
scored in some sectors. Telecom for example, is an area of marked improvement:
while access and the quality of service have recorded big increases, costs have
gone down substantially. In major ports, the turn-around time for ships is
reported to have reduced by half. The highways development programme has made
quick progress. Improvements in railways and airports are yet on the drawing
board, but will hopefully happen soon.
In this flurry of activity, the
danger is that the focus will stay only on the physical and visible. It is vital
that we recognise the importance of “soft� infrastructure. While
this includes a whole host of areas, of immediate concern are education, health,
law and order and the judicial system. While a lot of lip-service is paid to
education, the very fact that at least a third of our population is illiterate
is itself a telling commentary on our dismal failure in this area, A large
number of schemes, all announced with much fanfare, have begun and gone into
oblivion. Meanwhile, inadequate resources, poor management and lack of political
will have together ensured that the problem continues to grow.
A study by
the Boston Consulting Group indicates that in 2020, India will have a surplus of
47 million working-age people, even as all the developed countries (and,
unbelievably, China too) have a shortage. The “monetisation� of the
asset — in fact, converting this to an asset in the first place —
will require that all these persons be well-educated. Therefore, both basic
human rights and the realisation of our economic potential, require that
education be given the highest priority. The pay-off from the limited earlier
investments in education is already visible in our success stories: whether
software or space.
Like education, our record
in health too is dismal. Indicators like infant and child mortality rates,
malnutrition, and life expectancy are in stark contrast to our growing economic
progress. The gender ratio, as a study released a few days ago shows, is a cause
for serious concern and clearly points at female foeticide on a large scale. TB
and malaria continue to debilitate and even kill large numbers. Polio has been
much reduced, but not eliminated. HIV / AIDS cases are growing, while dengue,
hepatitis and other life-threatening diseases crop up from time to time. While
corporate India has built its islands of efficiency, and prosperous India has
created fortresses to protect its wealth, this sea of ill-health cannot be kept
out by security guards or colony gates. Again, as in education, health is
primarily an issue of basic rights, but is also an economic issue. Sickness
causes serious economic loss, both to the individual and the nation. Clearly,
health needs far more attention than it has got.
While education and
health have been widely acknowledged as issues requiring action, there is
inadequate focus on the judicial and enforcement systems, though the impact on
society and on the economy is very substantial. While we take pride in having an
excellent and independent judiciary, delays often make mockery of justice. Like
health, the impact on this is both on the individual and more broadly on
society. The economic impact of delays is obvious, but more insidious is the use
of courts to delay rather than seek justice. Enforcement of law is deteriorating
as rapidly as respect for it, and crime is escalating. In Delhi, the contrast
between security cover for dozens of VIPs and that for ordinary citizens is so
striking as to be almost absurd. Politicisation and corruption threaten to make
the police no more than the personal guardians of a few. One mundane effect is
the disorder and the lack of discipline on the roads, leading to accidents and
slow movement, with a large economic impact.
We seem to have
under-estimated the serious impact that the soft or social infrastructure has,
and have neglected it. If we are to fulfill the dream of making India a
developed country, we need to give serious thought and commit resources to a
rapid upgradation of this soft infrastructure. Researchers have noted the
importance of social capital in the development process, and this needs special
attention in India. Can we think of a social infrastructure improvement (or even
re-engineering) project and have it implemented as efficiently as the Golden
Quadrilateral for highways?
(The author is
president, NASSCOM. Views are personal)