PI Global Investments
Property

What does the latest HMRC property transactions data show?


“Home movers are 17% more active than this time last year according to our own national network of offices, indicating a potential uplift to come in the months ahead. The return of sub-4% mortgage rates and a notable uplift in supply is giving buyers greater choice, and affordability is also expected to further improve as the year progresses.”

Meanwhile, Karen Noye, mortgage expert at wealth management business, Quilter, gave this reaction: “The housing market has been remarkably quiet in the past few months, and new data from HMRC this morning shows that this trend has continued. Though the figures revealed the second consecutive monthly increase in seasonally adjusted residential property transactions, the uplift was a mere 1%.

“Following a dip in mortgage rates at the start of the year, they have more recently risen slightly which is likely to cool the market further. This quiet period has put some downward pressure on prices, but it has not had the dramatic impact that some had predicted when mortgage rates soared. This has resulted in moving home or taking the first step onto the property ladder becoming that much harder when combined with higher mortgage rates.”

She added: “All eyes are on the Bank of England as we await its first interest rate cut. It will now have some confidence that inflation is finally coming to heel, but has a difficult balancing act ahead of it and will be reluctant to move too much too quickly so we are likely to be waiting for some time yet.

“This will have a knock-on effect on the housing market as many prospective buyers will likely be holding out in the hopes of lower mortgage rates. Once the Bank does begin lowering its base rate, however, it would present a more favourable borrowing landscape which could pull prospective buyers out of ‘wait and see’ mode and accelerate the housing market’s recovery.”



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