A Look At ASML Holding’s Valuation As Hedge Funds Add Puts And High NA EUV Demand Debates Intensify

Recent hedge fund activity around ASML Holding (ENXTAM:ASML), including new positions with put options, has sharpened attention on the stock as investors reassess demand for its costly High NA EUV tools.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.

At a share price of €1,461.80, ASML has seen strong momentum recently, with a 30 day share price return of 19.58% and a year to date share price return of 48.21%. The 1 year total shareholder return stands at 125.61%, indicating that recent gains build on already strong longer term performance.

If you are looking beyond ASML to other companies tied to the AI build out, it may be worth scanning for infrastructure peers using our 47 AI infrastructure stocks

After a 1 year total shareholder return of 125.61% and the stock trading only about 2% below analyst price targets, you now have to ask yourself: is ASML still misunderstood value, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.7% Overvalued

According to the most followed narrative for ASML Holding, the fair value sits at €1,308.76, which is below the current share price of €1,461.80, and that gap is shaping how some investors interpret the recent surge.

High NA EUV adoption begins, revenues remain cyclical, but strategic relevance increases. High NA becomes a commercial standard, pushing margins and deepening customer dependence.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is built into that price gap? The narrative leans heavily on stronger margins, higher revenue and a premium profit multiple that assumes sustained strength.

Result: Fair Value of €1,308.76 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this narrative could be knocked off course if High NA EUV uptake is slower than hoped, or if tighter export controls restrict demand from key regions.

Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.

Another View: Market Ratios Paint a Different Picture

That 11.7% overvalued fair value estimate comes from a narrative based model. Market ratios tell a different story. ASML trades on a P/E of 56.2x versus a European Semiconductor average of 68.3x, peers at 75.3x and a fair ratio of 57x, which suggests only a small valuation gap.

For you, that means the share price is already reflecting a lot of quality, with limited distance between today’s P/E and the fair ratio. The key question is whether you are comfortable owning a stock where expectations are this high.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and concern feels familiar, that is the point, you are weighing both sides of the story in real time. To see how those trade offs look on paper, take a closer look at the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas?

If ASML is already on your radar, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not late to the next opportunity.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com