Quick Read
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SPCX surged 19.6% in its debut week to a $1.57 trillion market cap, backed by Starlink’s 10.3 million subscribers as of Q1 2026.
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NVDA gained 399% in three years from a similar inflection point and now posts $81.6 billion quarterly, which is the benchmark MacGuire uses for SPCX.
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When a Sequoia Capital partner compares a freshly public stock to NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) three years ago, investors pay attention. That is exactly what Sean MacGuire did on CNBC this week, arguing that “SpaceX right now is more like Nvidia three years ago than Tesla.” He went further on his personal positioning, adding, “Me as an individual, I’m going to hold my shares forever.”
NVIDIA traded at $42.69 on June 16, 2023 and closed at $204.40 on June 12, 2026. MacGuire is telling viewers that SpaceX is sitting at the same kind of inflection.
The Newly Public SpaceX Trade
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) made its market debut on Friday, June 9, 2026, and the tape has been hot. Shares added more than $400 billion in market value yesterday. They’re up another 13% today as of 1:00 p.m. ET. At its IPO price of $135, SpaceX was valued at $1.77 trillion. Today, shares are worth $2.85 trillion. That’s worth more than Amazon and only slightly behind Microsoft.
That valuation is being supported by a real, if early, financial engine. According to the company’s S-1, full-year 2025 revenue grew 33.2%, with the Connectivity segment alone adding $3.788 billion as Starlink subscribers expanded from 4.4 million to 8.9 million over the year. By the first quarter of 2026, subscribers had reached 10.3 million and Connectivity segment adjusted EBITDA hit $2,087 million for the quarter.
MacGuire has some reasons to believe the company could hit very outsized targets in the future.
MacGuire’s Inflection Thesis
The current run rate is approximately $18.5 billion annually. MacGuire projects revenue could reach the hundreds of billions of dollars by 2030, a view that is his forecast rather than guidance from the company. He also said Q4 2026 should show nearly 200% year-over-year growth versus Q1 2026, driven by three converging catalysts:
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Starship. The S-1 confirms SpaceX expects Starship to commence payload delivery to orbit in the second half of 2026, with milestones already including booster catch-and-reuse and in-space cryogenic propellant transfer. MacGuire characterized the program as already far along and “guaranteed to work,” a confidence level that remains his opinion.
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Orbital data centers. SpaceX is openly pursuing orbital AI compute at scale and AI chip manufacturing, though the S-1 cautions these initiatives are in early stages and may never reach commercial viability.
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Starlink direct-to-cell. Starship enables deployment of next-generation V3 satellites and direct-to-cell constellations, expanding the addressable market beyond rooftop terminals.