(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold prices are slightly lower and spot silver prices are higher ahead of the North American market open Monday, as renewed U.S.-Iran escalation pushed crude oil back above $90 a barrel and kept Treasury yields firm, limiting gold’s safe-haven response. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,012.00 an ounce, down 0.13%, while spot silver was trading near $56.73, up 1.62% on the session.
Gold’s early range was $3,982.20 to $4,040.90, leaving the metal below the $4,023.35 to $4,065.83 retracement zone after another failed push above $4,040. Silver’s early range was $55.40 to $57.60, with the metal rebounding from last week’s lows but still below the $58.53 to $59.44 trader-reaction zone that capped the latest breakdown.
Positioning after the latest significant U.S. economic data remains less dovish than the earlier CPI and PPI reaction suggested. Softer June inflation data initially reduced pressure for another near-term Fed move, but stronger retail sales, lower jobless claims, a sharp Philadelphia Fed manufacturing rebound and firmer University of Michigan sentiment have kept traders from pricing a clean policy pivot. Markets are still treating the July 29 Fed meeting as a likely hold, but at least one rate hike later this year remains priced into the curve as energy prices rise. The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.57%, while DXY was firmer near 100.87, leaving gold supported by geopolitical risk but capped by rate and dollar pressure.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as largely stalled shipping under active military pressure. The U.S. launched another round of strikes against Iranian military command centers, coastal surveillance sites, missile and drone launch sites and maritime capabilities after the death of another American service member, while Iran retaliated against Bahrain and Kuwait. A vessel caught fire near Oman after being hit by a projectile, and shipping traffic through the strait has largely stalled as Brent crude moved back above $90 a barrel. For gold, the impact remains two-sided: the conflict supports defensive demand, but higher oil prices reinforce inflation risk, lift yields and reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. For broader markets, the setup is oil bid, bonds under pressure, dollar steady and silver still trading as a higher-beta version of the rates trade.
Traders are watching Fed communication, follow-through in September rate-hike pricing and any new disruption to Hormuz shipping lanes. A sustained move below $3,982.20 would keep bears in control of the gold chart, while a recovery above $4,023.35 would ease immediate downside pressure.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading in the $82.00 to $83.00 area, while Brent crude was near $89.00 to $90.00. The U.S. dollar index is firmer and trading near 100.87. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.57% area.
Technically, spot gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the $4,023.35 pivot area and continue to trade under the $4,065.83 upper boundary of the latest retracement zone. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,023.35, with a sustained move targeting $4,065.83 and then the secondary lower top at $4,245.20. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,982.20, with deeper downside targets at the 50-day moving average near $3,947.13 and then $3,886.46. First resistance is seen at $4,023.35 and then at $4,065.83. First support is seen at $3,982.20 and then at $3,947.13.
Spot silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage despite Monday’s rebound, as prices remain below the $58.53 to $59.44 retracement zone that has defined the latest short-term breakdown. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $58.53, with a move above that level targeting $59.44 and then the all-time 50% level at $60.83. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $55.60, with deeper downside targets at $54.49 and then $54.23. First resistance is seen at $57.60 and then at $58.53. Next support is seen at $55.60 and then at $54.49.
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